Going into 2021, debt investment industry veteran Josh Zegen predicts similarities to the 2010 lending market. “This year will be most like a 2010 vintage, whereas 2020 was like 2009,” says Zegen, whose debt investment firm Madison Realty Capital has firsthand experience from the last financial crisis and achieved national prominence in its wake. Zegen’s background tells him that this year, “in general, a lot of older money is going to get subordinated and new money is going to have to come in,” and that most recaps that close will be distressed unless the property has a clear performance outlook or is part of one of the “hotter asset classes” like industrial.

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